Many countries are managing the Corona crisis by dividing it into three parts: health crisis, humanitarian and social crisis, and economic crisis. These three crises are interconnected. If the health crisis is not addressed effectively, the humanitarian and economic crisis will naturally escalate.
In many developing countries, the corona virus crisis is deepening. The impact of the epidemic, which started in the health sector, is turning into a humanitarian and economic crisis. That is why many countries are trying to force the state to fight the Corona crisis. However, Nepal seems to be in turmoil.
Even though the infection is increasing day by day, the leadership of the government has emphasized on the argument that the corona is like a cold or that the immunity of Nepalis is strong. Leaders from Brazil to the United States, who were not sensitive at the time, are now helpless due to the growing crisis in Corona. The budget for the new fiscal year came and went. The budget, which should have focused on the crisis brought by Corona in the world and in Nepal, was scattered all over the world under various headings. Administrative spending cuts were seen in name only. Leaving aside the issue of structural change in the economy, a few weeks after the budget speech, it is being said that the government cannot even pay salaries from the expenditure of Rs 40 billion and monthly income of Rs 15 billion. In order to mobilize resources to cope with the Corona crisis in India, the central and state governments are slashing facilities depending on the position. For example, the facilities of the President, Prime Minister, Ministers and MPs will be cut by 30 percent, while Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Kerala and Rajasthan have decided to cut their salaries by 10 to 100 percent. In Nepal, the state and local levels are increasing the facilities.
Although the infection rate is limited to only 3 percent of the 30 million population, the health crisis seems to be deepening when 900,000 Nepalis become infected. There is also a lack of in-depth socio-economic assessment of the immediate and long-term impact of Corona on Nepal. The government, the ruling party and other parties have turned their attention to the debate on authority, citizenship, US assistance, civil service, party training from outside forces, etc., as there is no crisis in the country.
At the time, the prime minister, health minister and finance minister, among others, had to focus on disaster management around the clock. Looking at the economic crisis, it is time for the finance minister to be equal to two finance ministers, but the time of this crisis has been a big 'portfolio' and the responsibility of the Ministry of Communications, which should also be the spokesperson of the government, has been heaped on the finance minister. Many Nepalis are now skeptical of what will happen next. While many countries have been gradually reducing the incidence of corona infection for fourteen days, the ban has been gradually lifted, while the opposite has been seen in Nepal and India. The transition is on the rise, People's lives are moving forward as if Corona has fled the country. The time of closure was supposed to be spent on prevention preparations but many weaknesses were seen. Infections in the tens of millions do not seem to be supported by our health infrastructure. The death toll has been low due to the high incidence of the infection among the younger generation so far and, as the Prime Minister has said, the disease seems to have increased immunity. As the corona spreads in the community and the infection increases in the adult generation, the number of deaths will also increase.
Even though about 11,000 people have been infected so far, the death toll has risen to 24, leading to a feeling of 'nothing is left'. But the actual death toll is found four weeks after the infection. For example, when the global corona mortality rate is above 5 percent, India has an average mortality rate of only 3 percent, while the actual mortality rate in India is around 10 percent. Because the number of deaths should be calculated according to the number of infected people four weeks ago. Now the term 'coronomonics' has come into use to explain and discuss the corona crisis. Many countries are managing the Corona crisis by dividing it into three parts: health crisis, humanitarian and social crisis, and economic crisis. These three crises are interconnected. If the health crisis is not addressed effectively, the humanitarian and economic crisis will naturally escalate. On the other hand, economic crisis seems to affect health and humanitarian crisis.
The scope of 'test' has been increased in Nepal by conducting 'pulling test'. It is commendable to try to increase the number of tests from 4-6 thousand per day to 10 thousand. It seems that the management of entering Nepal by air has been done relatively well. But many districts are still beyond the reach of easy PCR testing. While it takes many days for the results of the sent swab to return, on the one hand, the infected people have died without knowing the result, on the other hand, the infected people have already transmitted the corona to many.
The biggest weakness seen so far is the poor condition of contact tracing and quarantine-isolation centers. Due to the huge human and economic losses, it will be difficult to go back to full captivity. There is no alternative to effectively managing the corona transition and moving the economy forward. However, after the ban was lifted, the use of masks and physical distance among the people seemed to increase. It is important to focus on transition management by providing PCR machines for quick access to all districts and by declaring cities, towns or villages where there are many infections as 'red zones'. For example, there are 43 infected people in the same ward of Kailali. Just sealing such 'red zones' is not enough.
What other countries teach is that increasing the scope of the test, emphasizing contact tracing and making quarantine a little more manageable can greatly reduce the risk. The scope of tests is gradually increasing in Nepal, but it is still insufficient. To prevent corona, at least the body temperature of everyone who comes to the office should be measured, corona testing should be arranged in all hospitals, training and employment of youth should be provided and more manpower should be mobilized for contact tracing. In order to manage the humanitarian crisis, it is necessary to pay attention to four aspects: (1) the crisis of hunger of the poor, workers and low-income people, (2) the crisis in the supply of food and daily necessities, (3) the crisis created by unemployment of those in the country (4) Crisis of increasing mortality without treatment of other types of patients due to the increase in the number of corona patients.
In order to reduce the impact on the poor, Spain and other countries have introduced a program called 'Basic Income'. It is expected to not only feed the poor, but also empower them and address multidimensional poverty. Even India has recently sent some money to the accounts of the poor, farmers, etc. But Nepal's problem, Unlike India's Aadhaar card, there is no reliable identity card to identify poverty. There is a risk of humanitarian aid or relief being sent. Therefore, such programs can be carried out according to the standards of the federal government by forming an all-party structure in every village or municipality. India has announced a 'Poor Welfare Employment Program' targeting 116 districts in six states. It is estimated that more than 2 million people will be unemployed in Nepal, including those returning from foreign employment. Nepal's new budget includes employment-related programs. Providing employment based on the experience and skills of those returning from foreign employment can link labor to the labor market and increase local productivity. There is no shortage of job announcement programs in Nepal, but there is a big challenge in how to make them effective. It will also increase local productivity. There is no shortage of job announcement programs in Nepal, but there is a big challenge in how to make them effective. It will also increase local productivity. There is no shortage of job announcement programs in Nepal, but there is a big challenge in how to make them effective.
Food security is another challenge for Nepal. On the one hand, Nepal's own products are not getting market, on the other hand, it is becoming dependent on food and essential commodities. If the market for local products could be managed through the local level, the country's products could be promoted even a little bit. Adding more temporary structures to the treatment of corona can maintain the hospital's existing capacity to treat other diseases. The current protocol of keeping the younger generation in isolation centers and prioritizing the older generation in hospitals should be strictly enforced. Many cities in India, including Delhi, have turned train cars, empty houses and hotels into treatment centers. The Delhi government has come up with a plan to conduct door-to-door screening.
It is not good to close the whole hospital as soon as Corona is seen. It is not necessary to isolate the infected corona by 'sanitizing' the hospital and sealing the hospital to make contact tracing effective. Speaking of the economic crisis, there is concern about how to sustain the state's revenue at least with current expenditure, and how to mobilize resources for crisis management. On the other hand, it is about how to automate the engine of the economy, even if it is slow. However, as the crisis intensifies, the problems of declining remittances, declining foreign exchange reserves, inflation, etc. will continue to increase. Not only state power is concentrated in the capital Kathmandu, more than 40 percent of the economy's business is also here. That is why those who have gone to the village overnight have started coming to the capital again looking at their employment, profession and future. There are those who think that Kathmandu is psychologically safe as the infection is less in Kathmandu but there are more facilities.
The finance minister's main focus seems to be on raising as much revenue as possible, even when economic activity is low, to save the country from bankruptcy. This policy seems counterproductive to boosting the corona-ridden economy. Many countries have introduced relief packages ranging from tax breaks to up to 50 percent of workers' wages or even the rent of small and medium enterprises to keep industries and businesses afloat. In Nepal, all sectors from small and medium enterprises to large scale industries, from tourism and hotels to land and air transport are affected and all sectors need some form of relief. Crisis in the areas of manufacturing, employment, investment, etc. will deepen if monetary and financial policies fail to provide immediate relief to the banks and financial institutions that are at risk of defaulting industries, businesses and loans.
Diplomacy also has a hand in keeping the economic engine running smoothly. Amid Nepal's border dispute with India and the Sino-Indian border war, China offered Bangladesh a 97 percent tariff waiver on more than 5,100 items. In Nepal's relations with China, party politics seems to be given more attention and economic diplomacy less attention. There is almost no dialogue with India. There is a debate to make the tourism sector active based on the reality of living with Corona. From Australia to Europe, many have focused on domestic and domestic tourism. Due to the increasing number of infections in South Asian countries, it is not possible to attract foreign tourists to Nepal in the near future.
Overall, the failure of a powerful all-party committee to focus the country's attention on the Corona epidemic through three high-level task forces (health, humanitarian and economic crises) led by the prime minister could turn into a political crisis in the long run.
Tambahkan Komentar